If Trump et al. start breaking up alliances and/or encouraging unprovoked invasions of neighbours, it seems likely that currently non-nuclear wealthy countries may start making their own nuclear weapons.
Part of the reason nukes haven't spread to more countries is because of various alliances and security guarantees. Trump seems to want to undo all of this, as does Putin.
e.g. Sweden used to have its own nuclear weapons programme until it received security guarantees from the US:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_nuclear_weapons_program
We should be eliminating nukes, but breaking up alliances could just normalise them.
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