According to Era5, JFM ice concentration/extent in Greenland sea is on an unusual and steep upward slope since 2021.
I wonder whether this has anything to do with the #AMOC. Does fresher water simply freeze easier. Or is the reduced inflow of water due to decreasing convection making ice form easier🤔
Or something happening to the wind that used to push new #seaice away from #Greenland's coast – and stopped doing that since 2021.
What would be the cause for wind change near GL coast in January to March?🤔
Ah. Of course! #SuddenStratosphericWarming changes the wind direction from West-East to East-West!
We had several #SSW since 2021.
So they were pushing new ice against the coast where it can stick together easily? 🤔
AMOC-independent – unless these SSW themselves have something to do with AMOC.
But I don't think they do. I think, they occur a) during #LaNina with b) low sea ice in the Kara sea or Laptev sea (Russian coast).
Altho... 🤔🤔🤔 a slowing AMOC is causing a quasi-permanent La Nina state, as per modelling by M. England et al 2022.
So in a way, maybe AMOC has gotten slow enough for producing the unusual 3 La Nina winters in a row – and in teamwork with #climatechange causing low sea ice in Kara or Laptev sea – produced the unusual frequency of SSW – who caused sea ice on Greenland's coast to stick easily during January-March 2021-2024.
Could be AMOC related after all. 🤔 😁
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