Toot

Written by Dragon-sided D on 2024-10-14 at 18:01

I've recently been reading about science-centric prediction markets. It turns out there are are at least two (legal, afaict) sites where one can bet on scientific outcomes (eg, "Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature this year?")

The sites -- Kalshi and Polymarket -- focus more on tech predictions than scientific claims, though.

I would love to see a market established for people to wager on paper reproducibility, as described in the article below.

https://econcs.seas.harvard.edu/files/econcs/files/pnas-2015-dreber-15343-7.pdf

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