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Toot

Written by Dragon-sided D on 2024-10-14 at 18:01

I've recently been reading about science-centric prediction markets. It turns out there are are at least two (legal, afaict) sites where one can bet on scientific outcomes (eg, "Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature this year?")

The sites -- Kalshi and Polymarket -- focus more on tech predictions than scientific claims, though.

I would love to see a market established for people to wager on paper reproducibility, as described in the article below.

https://econcs.seas.harvard.edu/files/econcs/files/pnas-2015-dreber-15343-7.pdf

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Descendants

Written by Dragon-sided D on 2024-10-14 at 18:06

[P]rediction markets could potentially be used as so-called “decision markets” to prioritize replication of some studies, such as those with the lowest likelihood of replication. This would generate salient and informative signals about reproducibility, and help optimizing the allocation of resources into replication.

[#]economics #science #reproducibility

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