I would like for all of this to end in the repeal of the TikTok ban, but it's almost certainly going to end with Trump negotiating the sale of US TikTok as a gift to one of his cronies, which is why Elon and Zuck are elbowing each other so hard right now.
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@evacide I wouldn't be surprised if Bezos made a play for it, since that would be a neat way to jumpstart a push into the social media space.
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@lrhodes @evacide
plus it would make the trumpists feel like they'd done something smart, playing them off one another.
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@evacide - I still think Bytedance might pass on selling any of their assets, depends on the calculus between their bean counters and political agendizers, both running the company.
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@TotalSonic
yeh i feel like this is an under-considered possibility. sure they like money; but they're not gonna get any bids that aren't fire-sale prices, & tiktok still has a global audience, at least for now. plus yeah there is the whole 'sow dissatisfaction in America' aspect [https://octodon.social/@alienghic/113845111134952119].
@evacide
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@evacide - TikTok likely being closed down in the USA does create a vacuum for short form video sharing sites though. YouTube is already positioned to gain with their Shorts, but the site still doesn't really cover the same vibe TikTok had. One could hope for a positive move in this, such as Loops gaining a decent sized user base. Or maybe a new player will emerge on top. The way 2025 is going I certainly can see that it is likely the worst outcome, like Meta or X taking control, can happen.
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@evacide
Byte Dance has agency here too.
What if they prefer having Americans be pissed off at the US government?
America is a large market, but we are not the largest market for tiktok (that honor goes to indonesia)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1299807/number-of-monthly-unique-tiktok-users/
Dropping the US would be a significant loss for them, but I don't think it'd be that much worse for them than the pain the US inflicted on it's own business community with all the sanctions on Russia.
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@alienghic @evacide Bytedance is a chunk owned by the Chinese government. Nothing will happen until Trumpy is in office and then the polite beating each other over the head with baseball bats will be conducted between Xi and Trump's lot until they find a solution.
Not sure Musk matters, he can't act easily without Chinese approval because he's got so many assets tied up in China.
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@etchedpixels @alienghic @evacide Someone will end up offering Trump a personally enriching deal that ends up with Tik Tok staying where it is and Trump able to claim he has fixed the problem, whatever "the problem" is (or can be temporarily redefined to be).
It might cost Bytedance a bit but will pay off in the long run vs. the alternative. Whatever Trump really thinks about China, it will be easily sidelined by the chance to earn a few dollars.
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@Salty @etchedpixels @evacide
A lot of the strife between the US and China is about jostling for international power.
The US is the aging great power with a bunch of internal political problems.
China is the latest challenger threatening the US's historical dominance.
The US is mad about this and is trying to cut China down to size, but China has plenty of options to maintain their international influence.
The result of that is I think there's value to China in taking a hard line position with the Tiktok ban and seeing which parts of the world is willing to follow the US in blocking tiktok and who's willing to continue socializing with China.
It's not a challenge that is likely to lead to any violent tests of power, but it is a challenge that implies which country has more international influence.
And I think not only are the governments fighting over power, I think the companies in each sphere of influence are also testing each other for their relative levels of influence.
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@alienghic @evacide
"... but I don't think it'd be that much worse for them than the pain the US inflicted on it's own business community with all the sanctions on russia"
Interesting choice for a sanctions reference, I feel like you're angling for something there, am I wrong?
I mean, why single out a just response to russian aggression, why not
"....with all the sanctions on Venezuela"?
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@goinfawr @evacide
I referenced Russia because it's in the news more and so was easier for me to remember.
Also Russia was pretty high on the countries using tiktok by population list at about 50 million compared to the US's about 100 million.
Though given the sizes of the countries that means tiktok is used by 1 out of 2 Russians versus 1 out 3 Americans.
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@alienghic @evacide
But you agree that the sanctions are justified?
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@goinfawr @evacide
The sanctions on on Russia?
Yes. They're more justified than the sanctions on say Venezuela or Cuba
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@evacide That would certainly explain the sudden about-face on fighting dis/mis-information on Twitter and Facebook
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@evacide Still waiting for that Octagon thing. Every punch a win, no matter who eats it.
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@evacide I would like for all of this to end with balanced, scalable legislation that reflects social media's responsibilities both as a mass broadcaster of information and mass data collector, but that's even less likely
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@evacide
The top griftee bid wins?
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@evacide Trump likes to profit from extortionate threats more than he likes to reward loyalty.
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@evacide
Oooooh. Very interesting observation.
That would make a lot of sense.
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@evacide Trump has an own 'social media' company...
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@evacide all those three- letter-agencies are going to have to learn how to declassify their evidence if they want the consent of the governed.
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