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Written by Jan Rosenow on 2024-12-16 at 20:38

One chart, many stories. Predicted renewable energy deployment vs actual deployment.

=> View attached media

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Written by Steven on 2024-12-16 at 20:46

@janrosenow Seems someone got burned really badly by the prediction in 2000 and decided they never wanted to make the over prediction mistake EVER again.

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Written by Poliorcetics on 2024-12-16 at 21:07

@janrosenow @yosh I find the chart highly disingenuous in that it takes the lower end predictions. If the author truly want to show the good thing (more renewable is nice!) they should at least take the mean/median or even the higher end estimates.

This whole graph is a college course on « just pick the data you need for your objective » :/

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Written by Richard 🔶UK #RejoinEU on 2024-12-16 at 22:08

@janrosenow well, it’s free money so why not! The only problem is that so are fossil fuels so this isn’t displacing them overall, it’s just adding to the energy we consume

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Written by bhahne on 2024-12-16 at 22:30

@janrosenow Yes, this has been a huge IEA bias for a very long time:

"The International Energy Agency consistently underestimates wind and solar power. Why?"

https://www.vox.com/2015/10/12/9510879/iea-underestimate-renewables

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Written by Kagan MacTane on 2024-12-17 at 01:40

@janrosenow The first few points/predictions are kinda-sorta understandable, or at least excusable. But after about 2010, it becomes seriously, "Come on, how can you look at this [waves at previous data points] and then predict that [pointing at bizarrely divergent prediction]!?"

Feels like a lot of people have an ax to grind. And won't admit they're wishcasting, not predicting.

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Written by Leon Overweel on 2024-12-18 at 10:50

@janrosenow it's a bit disingenuous to take the “existing-policies scenario, lower-end estimates” predictions to make this graph IMO.

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