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Written by David Smith on 2024-11-19 at 16:50

It was around this time last year that Apple flipped the “roll out iOS 17 to everyone bit”, before that it was hovering around 30%.

This year seems to be following a similar pattern where after an initial surge the adoption has stalled out at a more steady state (45% for Widgetsmith, 35% for Pedometer++).

I really hope they hit the 'push it to everyone’ button soon (maybe with iOS 18.2?), it is frustrating to having iOS 18 features which are still unseen or explored.

https://mastodon.social/@_Davidsmith/111442265683318863

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Descendants

Written by David Smith on 2024-11-26 at 16:05

Looks like just as I was speculating about last week, iOS 18 has now entered the “prompt more people to update” phase of its roll out.

Here's iOS 17's adoption graph for comparison. I’d expect that within a week or so iOS 18 will hit another plateau point (maybe around 60ish percent), and then start the continued steady growth from there.

It is really encouraging to now be in the place where more people are on iOS 18 than any other version.

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Written by David Smith on 2024-12-16 at 16:08

Right on cue it looks like we have entered the 'settling in' phase of the iOS 18 rollout. Just before thanksgiving Apple hit the “release to everyone" button, which caused a massive jump.

Now we are leveling off between 70-80%, where I expect we will remain going forward with a slow upwards drift.

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Written by Jérôme on 2024-11-19 at 16:55

@_Davidsmith Fascinating to see the early adopter difference between the 2 products

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Written by ((Jann Gobble)) 🏳️‍🌈 on 2024-11-19 at 16:56

@_Davidsmith I'm an (ex) iOS dev. Truthfully I won't upgrade from any version until at LEAST the .1 release. I just updated my iPhone 14 Pro Max to 18.1 last week.

Why? Two reasons really. I don't program much anymore and don't need to be on bleeding edge...but really? BUGS! I don't trust Apple to NOT release a .0 version that won't crap out my device.

Also? I'm not really excited about 18.x cos I don't get Apple Intelligence. So, really, why upgrade? Most of the good stuff won't get to me.

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Written by basile on 2024-11-19 at 17:18

@_Davidsmith What do you use to track this? I have a lot smaller user base, but that still would be interesting to check.

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Written by David Smith on 2024-11-19 at 17:45

@basile I use a custom in-house analytics system, but you can see this in App Store Connect analytics, in the Metrics area. Look at Sessions and then group by Platform Version.

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Written by basile on 2024-11-19 at 17:52

@_Davidsmith thanks ! Mine is not as smooth (so few users) but that’s still interesting.

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Written by John Gruber on 2024-11-19 at 18:22

@_Davidsmith What does the graph look like for after Apple flipped that switch for iOS 17? I’ve noticed this year that it’s widely misunderstood in tech circles that annual iOS adoption has two steps: initial release in mid/late September, and then the big wave when Apple pushes it to everyone with devices set to “automatic”.

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Written by David Smith on 2024-11-19 at 18:35

@gruber Here is the full yearly cycle for iOS 17 in Widgetsmith. There are two clear jumps. The actual launch in September and then a massive jump in late November. From there we very quickly get to the place where it becomes the dominate version and settles into a slow, but steady progression.

I believe the second jump is, as you say, when they change it from available at the bottom of the Software Update tab to the suggested next version for every phone.

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Written by Bill Lloyd on 2024-11-20 at 02:12

@_Davidsmith @gruber That second bump is when automatic installs kick in. At that point if you have "install updates automatically" selected, you’ll be updated across a major OS boundary. Before that it's either new devices that ship with the OS, or people who went to settings and tapped "download and install.”

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Written by John Gruber on 2024-11-20 at 02:41

@_Davidsmith There's no red badge on Settings on my wife’s phone running iOS 17 yet, for example.

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Written by Danny Whitt on 2024-11-21 at 01:01

@gruber @_Davidsmith In fact, my Mom’s iPhone 15 Pro did have a badge on the setting’s app only to upgrade to a more up-to-date (latest) 17.x.x, not 18.x. Hmmm. 🤔

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Written by John Gruber on 2024-11-22 at 15:29

@_Davidsmith Perfect, thanks. What’s a little hard to figure about this is that it looks like the second spike, when Apple pushed iOS 17 as the suggested update (red-badging the Settings icon and pushing it to the majority of users on automatic updates) doesn't correspond to an OS update. The spike starts around Nov 19 or 20, 2024, but iOS 17.1.1 was released on Nov 10.

https://www.macrumors.com/2023/11/10/ios-17-1-1-includes-these-bug-fixes/

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Written by Jonathan Goforth on 2024-11-22 at 16:32

@gruber @_Davidsmith that seems like it would be a perfectly reasonable timeline. It makes sense to me that they would slow roll 17.1.1 to early adopters first, give it a week or so to make sure it is stable, and then push it to everyone. Presumably, the main goal is to have no surprises when it goes out to the bulk of users.

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Written by John Gruber on 2024-11-22 at 15:30

@_Davidsmith So I think what Apple does is release an update they plan to push as the “automatic update”, but waits a week after releasing that version to flip the switch just to make sure that version has no unexpected bugs.

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Written by Daniel 🏳️‍🌈 Jilg :sondrine: on 2024-11-20 at 17:00

@_Davidsmith tracks with @telemetrydeck data 😁 https://telemetrydeck.com/survey/apple/iOS/majorSystemVersions/

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Written by Jared “Indie Social Web” White on 2024-11-21 at 23:51

@_Davidsmith I'm boycotting Apple Intelligence for as long as I possibly can, so I haven't upgraded any of my devices (except Apple TV probably) to this year's release cycle. That's on Apple, as far as I'm concerned.

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Written by Kuba Suder • @mackuba.eu on 🦋 on 2024-11-26 at 16:08

@_Davidsmith Yup, it definitely did 😉 https://martianbase.net/@mackuba/113545134242532628

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Written by Trevor Smits on 2024-11-26 at 16:23

@_Davidsmith This weekend my mom told me that she update her phone "Right when it was released".

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Written by Almaz on 2024-11-28 at 01:06

@_Davidsmith Unfortunately, they broke your invisible app icon :(

https://david-smith.org/blank.html

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Written by Tim Schmitz on 2024-12-16 at 17:00

@_Davidsmith It’s interesting that Pedometer++ seemed to overtake Widgetsmith in adoption around the same time. Do you have any guess why that might be?

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