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Written by Aki Vehtari on 2025-02-06 at 10:26

The original SBC checks whether the inference works for all possible data sets generated using the model and parameter draws from the prior. Priors are usually wider than posteriors and may contain regions where the computation fails. Illustration: Regions 1 and 3 exhibit bias in opposite directions, while inference is well calibrated within region 2. Prior SBC will not suggest calibration issues, while posterior SBC can assess inference for a posterior contained in one of the regions. 2/5

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