Toot

Written by Daniel Lakeland on 2025-01-19 at 06:32

@cdunnpasadena

That is, in a Bayesian context there's some probabilities for unknown inputs, there's some predictor apparatus, and there's some set of probabilities for outcomes. If the observed outcomes don't agree with the predicted ones it's either because your assumptions are wrong about the unknown inputs, or your predictor is wrong, it's not because "probability doesn't work"

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