Toot

Written by Pavel Korytov :emacs:☮️ on 2024-12-22 at 12:06

I just wonder...

If you're planning to get a group of n=40 people to sign some Very Important Papers in the last week of December, without any alternative dates, isn't it immediately obvious that:

• The baseline infection rate for this week in this city is 70 infections per 10000, i.e., p=0.007, takes about a minute to google

• so the chance of at least one person being sick is:

1 - (1 - p)^n = 1 - (1 - 0.007)^40 ~= 1 - 0.755 = 24.5%

And that is assuming the infections are conditionally independent and people don't regularly meet each other.

How is it even possible not to think about it and not plan for contingencies?

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