I think there's been a huge polling shift in the past few weeks that was picked up on in red states that don't get much polling because there's little reason to do so. Why waste resources when you already know what the results will be? So you poll the swing states ad nauseam. And because those polls are so frequent, the movement toward one candidate might seem like statistical noise. So you correct for it. And then it happens again. And again you correct for it again. After a few weeks of doing this, it's entirely possible for you to have corrected yourself out of seeing real poll movement. And it seems like they still should have picked up on it. If the 'noise' is one-directional and favoring a single candidate, as it is here, then you should probably pay attention to it. Otherwise it's like that starship journey to Alpha Centauri where you misprogram the flight computer by a half-degree and you end up shooting past the entire solar system. All of this is a roundabout way of saying that I think Harris is going to end up with something approaching 55 percent of the vote, perhaps more.
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