"But one must foresee the end in order to resist, or even see, the beginnings. One must foresee the end clearly and certainly and how is this to be done, by ordinary men or even by extraordinary men?"
This quote from a history of WWII Germany names the core problem:
we have to guess the outcome in a complex system before we can even see its beginning.
The fundamental paradox of knowing when and how to resist.
From They Thought They Were Free: the Germans, 1933-45 https://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/511928.htm
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In one sense, I love this question. I think perfectly describes the frustrating uncertainty of operating in any complex system, but especially in sensing disastrous outcomes.
But I also hate this question, because of its "nobody could have known" implications.
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In fact, somebody could have known. In nearly all cases, somebody already knows. We're just dismissing them, out of well-ingrained habit. We lean into doubt about ever knowing the future. "Well, you don't know know."
But doubt is always applied more to the less powerful.
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So the fundamental question of resistance isn't actually about you individually knowing the outcome. It's a question of who you're giving your attention and belief to.
Who do you believe, the marginalized people who have been screaming their warnings of disaster, or the powerful people (e.g. media) who are signalling doubt about the outcome?
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I wrote about this with a software angle a while ago, but I really can't stand "nobody could have known."
Somebody knows, it's up to us to pay attention to them.
https://medium.com/@ElizAyer/nobody-could-have-known-inclusive-behaviors-to-counter-a-culture-of-short-termism-cf662e1bab26
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In retrospect, this article doesn't go nearly far enough.
It's not enough to welcome dissent when it happens, I think it's essential to actively seek the views that are being systemically squeezed out of your field of view.
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@elizayer this line of thought recalls for me Miranda Fricker’s concept of testimonial justice and injustice (ascribing legitimacy or illegitimacy to the views of witnesses based on status) as well as Sasha Costanza-Chock’s “design justice” (which parallels Harding’s “strong objectivity” in its priority on being guided by the most marginalized participants in a system). Love how you bring that in to product management.
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