Anyone else getting "it is the end of January 2020" vibes about H5N1?
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from eniko@peoplemaking.games
@eniko It would be gruesomely ironic for it to hit en masse in March, wouldn’t it.
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from manmachine@bitbang.social
@manmachine
It is March 2020. Donald Trump is president. A pandemic sweeps the globe
It is March 2025. Donald Trump is president. A pandemic sweeps the globe
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from eniko@peoplemaking.games
@eniko I've been watching H1N9, H5N9, and H5N1 for a while. Things are gonna explode with one of the forms of avian influenza soon.
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from Stinkie@mastodon.social
@eniko More like Sweden 1350…
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from yon@sakurajima.moe
@eniko so many kids missing school at this time of year. Also, the most recent data about excess mortality in NL is a staggering +14% (EU's average was +5% https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?oldid=509982)
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from gabrielesvelto@fosstodon.org
@gabrielesvelto don't worry, in a few years the higher excess mortality will return to baseline when the new numbers get added to the rolling average! 😊
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from eniko@peoplemaking.games
@eniko I've been getting those vibes practically nonstop since 2020...
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from Undead_Zeratul@ocw.social
@eniko Yes, but, we've been getting those vibes for a while.
The fact is that a human pandemic of H5N1 is going to be very different than 1918's H1N1. Even as it keeps infecting humans, the inevitable strain that will actually be adapted for human spread may not emerge for some time (few pig farms have been hit yet, and while not a necessary step, it's an important one). Worse, the first human-adapted strain, like H1N1, is unlikely to cause severe morbidity. That will come later.
Keep in mind that COVID was, essentially, already able to spread easily between humans when the outbreak started in 2019. That had a strong effect on the trajectory of the outbreak as it became a pandemic, with hospitals being overloaded due to the disease already being quite severe.
The bovine strain of H5N1 is showing strong signs of being mild in humans, which it readily infects much more easily than the avian strain. To us, that's a major hint leading credence to the idea that this entire thing is going to go down like H1N1.
What that means for you, the COVID cautious game developer, is that things are going to get very weird in the next few years. The early outbreak of a human-adapted H5N1 will be mild, and fascist grifters will use that as an opportunity to attack public health for "misleading" everyone about the dangers of a bird flu pandemic. Leaders worldwide will take the Great Barrington Declaration approach to H5N1 and aim for herd immunity strictly by infection, which itself will maximize the opportunities for H5N1 to adapt to us and become deadly. That's the point in time when the situation will go from weird to terrible. And then the fash will use the subsequently skyrocketing disability to advocate getting rid of the useless eaters… all exactly as it occurred in and after 1918.
It feels like we're in January 2020 but in actuality we're probably sometime in 1917.
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from croissant@zeroes.ca
@eniko Apologies for the wall. I started typing and then for some reason failed to stop until it was too late.
=> More informations about this toot | More toots from croissant@zeroes.ca This content has been proxied by September (3851b).Proxy Information
text/gemini