Seeing people panicking over nVidia's stock dropping like a stone at the news about an open-source LLM comparable to ChatGPT but without a country's worth of electricity needed, and I'm just shaking my head.
How is it even slightly possible that in this day and age, with THIS many crashes in the last twenty-plus years, that people still can't recognize a bubble when they see it? How? All of this, the billions of dollars wasted on nothing, had every hallmark of a bubble if not an outright pyramid scheme scam. It was always going to pop like a helium balloon at a porcupine's birthday party. If it wasn't this, it'd have been the perfume wearing off the stinkweed, something I expected to happen quite a while ago anyway.
[#]ai #economics #llm #nvidia
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@theogrin Because to craploads of people, it's not a stock market bubble while the Numbers Go Up. It's only ever a bubble when the numbers fall back down.
Which kind of explains a lot of things, actually...
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@theogrin
People will always build castles in the air.
And some people will always fall for them.
Would you like to buy a Semper Augustus tulip bulb? Maybe invest in the South Sea Company? How about some UK Railroad stocks? Could I interest you in some silver? How about comic books if that's not your thing? Maybe I could interest you in some shares in Worldcom? Maybe some crypto?
This song and dance is as old as public companies, and will continue to play as long as public companies exist.
Recommended reading: "A random walk down wall street" by Burton Malkiel.
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@NicolaElle
I'd love to buy a Semper Augustis tulip bulb. Or maybe some fungus-resistant Gros Michel cuttings. (I know, entirely not the point.)
And a friend was just complaining about Pokemon cards...
Mostly I'm just looking at the people who really should know better, the ones who have ostensibly studied history or at least lived through numerous examples of destructive commodities trading. And this isn't even a commodity!
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@theogrin The edition of the Malkiel book I read was from the 2000s, and had a description of the tech bubble. FOMO is a thing. It's tempting, as you see these fortunes building around you, to want to get swept up in the hype, to chase fool's gold along with everyone else. As one finance writer at the time put it, "I felt like the designated driver at a New Years' Eve party."
Mob mentality... it's a hella scary thing.
(That said, having tried Gros Michel bananas... if I was in a place where they'd actually grow, I might actually want that. Screw business, this would be for myself!). 🍌
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@NicolaElle @theogrin And, really, the stock market is one big poker game. No one knows what cards anyone else is holding until they show them by making an announcement or at the earnings call. The rest of the time they're just trying to read faces and guess based on everyone else's bets.
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@faithisleaping @theogrin And even there, a few people will sometimes use the aces they have tucked in their sleeves. Someone once made a graph of earnings announced in comparison to expected earnings. It looked like a normal curve, except for one part that looked like an asymptote. Just before announced minus expected reached 0, there is an unnatural dip in the normal curve; just beyond announced minus expected equaling 0, there was a spike up.
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@NicolaElle @faithisleaping
Sometimes those aces are jokers, or 'how to play bridge' Bicycle cards. Stock buybacks and layoffs and all those ridiculous means to boost quarterly 'earnings'...
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@theogrin it’s so depressing how much tech is just about scamming money out of investors now. i remember working for a game studio 10 years ago with a millionaire owner who just kept coming up with schemes to scam money out of investors with the least amount of work and now i can’t unsee how that’s what everyone seems to be doing now
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@theogrin @StaceyCornelius When I read that nVidia was providing seed funding to its own customers, I knew a correction couldn’t be far off.
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@theogrin just like with most things this decade, something being foreseeable and avoidable (but not avoided) doesn't make it any less bad when it happens
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@theogrin To me all these bubbles are Just money laundering. In fact the whole financiala sistem it's a money laundering scam. Only this time I hope they lose EVERYTHING
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