Ancestors

Toot

Written by M. Grégoire on 2025-01-19 at 12:26

I see people commenting on how strange it is that a few months ago, Democrats were calling Mr. Trump a #fascist, but now they're shaking his hand, chatting with him, and preparing the transition between Administrations.

It was a lie. Sure, they disagree with his policies, think he'll make the US a worse place, etc. [0] But most Democratic politicians don't really believe President Trump is an existential threat to American democracy.

[0] With some good reasons.

1/2

[#]uspol

=> More informations about this toot | More toots from mpjgregoire@cosocial.ca

Descendants

Written by M. Grégoire on 2025-01-19 at 12:32

For what it's worth, I don't think US democracy is seriously imperilled either. To make some specific predictions:

• There will be mid-term elections;
• There will be a 2028 presidential election;
• Mr. Trump will not run in 2028;
• Looking out four years from now, the odds the Democratic presidential candidate will win in 2028 are about 50%.

2/2

[#]uspol

=> More informations about this toot | More toots from mpjgregoire@cosocial.ca

Written by Mick 🇨🇦 on 2025-01-19 at 14:11

@mpjgregoire I hope you are correct, but I think you might not be fully engaging with some alarmingly plausible scenarios.

Saving this for review in 4 years. 😄

With regard to elections being held, I think you’re probably correct.

The degree to which they are free, fair, and believed to represent the will of the voters is already shaky, and is unlikely to improve.

Weirdly, the presence of democratic rituals does not actually indicate a functional democracy.

=> More informations about this toot | More toots from mick@cosocial.ca

Written by M. Grégoire on 2025-01-20 at 19:37

@mick Reasonable points. But I'm trying to make specific, verifiable predictions here; if I were to predict that the elections would in 2028 would be free and fair, then we might easily end up arguing about what exactly "free and fair" means.

=> More informations about this toot | More toots from mpjgregoire@cosocial.ca