The 5 GHCN stations in LA that report Tmax Tmin Prcp since at least 1933.
2024 was by far not the warmest nor warmest June-Sept.
A missed Dec rain is also very common. Large, yet no record-large sum of rain in 2023+2024 for🌿growth. But a climate fingerprint in
[#]LAfires ? Hm. I'd say no.
The interesting bit: the rising trend due to #ClimateChange is most pronounced in tmin.
The astonishing bit: max daily rain in any of the 5 stations was off the chart in 2024, with 265mm.
And while the focus on daily max rain in weather stations is not really an indicator for the frequency nor amplitude, because heavy rain occurs very confined and might just miss that particular station by a few km,
both, 2023 and 2024 had more incidents of high daily maximum rains than other years in these 5 stations.
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That post got me blocked on Bluesky by Andrew Dessler... https://bsky.app/profile/anlomedad.bsky.social/post/3lfiljekug22e
Where did the story originate that 2024 was the hottest year or hottest summer on record for LA county? It clearly wasn't. Not even close.
I had repeated it as well after I had heard it in one of the YT live streams by Daniel Swain.
But these 5 weather stations tell a different story. One is (or maybe now was) even in the vicinity of the largest fire.
Ah well.The World Weather Attribution team is going to investigate local conditions at some stage. Then we'll know.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org
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A thread on the fire history in Southern California, with its special "fire-evolved" ecosystem and Santa Ana phenomenon. Not specifically about the current #LAfires . https://bsky.app/profile/pyrogeog.bsky.social/post/3lfd7je7gw22l
By Crystal A. Kolden , Director of UC Merced Fire Resilience Center. Pyrogeographer. Wrote a paper 2017 on SoCal fires, about whether they were Santa-Ana induced or not. The image below is from the paper. The red dots on the map are Santa Ana fires, the blue dots aren't.
The thread concludes with hope for better living with the fires by fire-proofing old infrastructure according to newest standards, and managing fuel load.
Hm. Prescribed fires – their smoke is dangerous for the population.
Managing fuel load manually sounds impossible because this is not forest with dead branches and leaves littering the ground.
And if people "plant" stone gardens around their property, the summer temperatures increased by this new feature will be unbearable. They already are in my book..
Fireproofing all old infrastructure sounds like a project that lasts decades..
Anyway. Good thread. Makes a difference when an expert can just speak about what they think is important – versus a middleman asking the expert questions and leading the narrative. I know of only very few journalists who manage to ask good questions. Mostly, the Q work to keeping debate on kindergarden level. Not good.
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Sasha Alexander #Gershunov, ocean-atmosphere and #fireweather climate scientist at #Scripps speaks about the #SantaAna phenomenon and wildfires in SoCal.
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/california-wildfire-analysis-scripps-oceanography-climate-experts
He mentions in passing that SoCal is experiencing an upward trend in fire-prone weather (dryness before the normal ultra-dry Santa Ana comes in)
with abundance of fuel load due to atmospheric rivers in the preceding year(s) – and adds, that this trend is not projected for the future.
Whether this means that the statistics are a fluke or that the model projections are missing something that the statistics are telling us, is not said.
In this context, they link to an #openaccess 2022 paper https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7
by #Guirguis and Sasha Gershunov et al "Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California"
This one paints a broader picture with fireweather_fuel-load teleconnection to the Northwest coast of America, Some form of swing or seesaw pattern of pressure highs and lows.
When I hear teleconnection, I intuitively associate a climate connection.
The Scripps article with Sasha Gershunov brings further information. I only cherry-picked this one item. Have a read for more background on LA fires. 🙂
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German explanations why some houses survive a burning neighbourhood unscathed.
No vegetation around the house, metal roof, empty gutters, outer cement shell, and a low brick wall around the garden that shields against the "blizzard of flying embers" .
Video, das erläutert, wie es kommt, dass mitten im nachbarschaftlichen Inferno auch immer wieder mal ein Haus komplett unangetastet stehen bleibt.
https://www.zeit.de/wissen/2025-01/waldbraende-kalifornien-feuerfeste-haeuser-architektur-los-angeles
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