Ancestors

Written by Zach Weinersmith on 2024-11-08 at 18:58

Seeing this posted everywhere, but isn't this obviously a bad use of data? Like, you have a bunch of questions asking a highly polarized public whether things are good currently on a variety of indicators. Surely the divorce from reality runs in the opposite direction once the administration flips, at least to some extent, no?

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Toot

Written by Zach Weinersmith on 2024-11-08 at 19:00

Or, likewise, suppose these were questions like "Inflation was been much worse under the current administration than the last," I bet most of the Republicans would get it right, whether or not they had familiarity with the data.

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Descendants

Written by Jamie McCarthy on 2024-11-08 at 21:16

@ZachWeinersmith These questions are the exact questions at the heart of Trump's campaign: inflation, crime, the border, and the economy. And Republicans believe the lies he's been telling for a year.

To try to "both sides" this, you'd have to find a Democratic campaign that lied about all its core issues flagrantly, consistently, and in the face of all fact-checking. We can't run that test because Democrats do not do that.

Stop both-sidesing Republican hate and ignorance please! Thank you!

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Written by Rusty Earthfire on 2024-11-09 at 01:13

@ZachWeinersmith This data presentation conflates two issues -- (1) was the most recent election won based on misinformation, and (2) are Republicans more detached from reality than Democrats.

(1) It would be useful to have percentages of the electorate that got each question correct/incorrect, and not have to infer from outcome.

(2) You are right, this is a one-sided view that does not answer the question. But the answer is yes, extremely. Here is one look at that: https://www.briefingbook.info/p/asymmetric-amplification-and-the?publication_id=1002034&post_id=138749341

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Written by Kent Ray Willard on 2024-11-09 at 12:30

@ZachWeinersmith Let's say we ask, if unemployment was much better under this administration than the last, or Covid deaths were much lower under this administration than the last, or the murder rate was much lower under this administration than the last.

Then we get into questions of min, max, median or mean of the periods, and how to define the periods.

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Written by Kent Ray Willard on 2024-11-09 at 12:33

@ZachWeinersmith The poll shows the failure of the media to convey trends and understanding. How does a tariff work? Are murder rates, inflation rates, and illegal immigration rising or falling?

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