Seeing this posted everywhere, but isn't this obviously a bad use of data? Like, you have a bunch of questions asking a highly polarized public whether things are good currently on a variety of indicators. Surely the divorce from reality runs in the opposite direction once the administration flips, at least to some extent, no?
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Or, likewise, suppose these were questions like "Inflation was been much worse under the current administration than the last," I bet most of the Republicans would get it right, whether or not they had familiarity with the data.
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@ZachWeinersmith These questions are the exact questions at the heart of Trump's campaign: inflation, crime, the border, and the economy. And Republicans believe the lies he's been telling for a year.
To try to "both sides" this, you'd have to find a Democratic campaign that lied about all its core issues flagrantly, consistently, and in the face of all fact-checking. We can't run that test because Democrats do not do that.
Stop both-sidesing Republican hate and ignorance please! Thank you!
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@ZachWeinersmith This data presentation conflates two issues -- (1) was the most recent election won based on misinformation, and (2) are Republicans more detached from reality than Democrats.
(1) It would be useful to have percentages of the electorate that got each question correct/incorrect, and not have to infer from outcome.
(2) You are right, this is a one-sided view that does not answer the question. But the answer is yes, extremely. Here is one look at that: https://www.briefingbook.info/p/asymmetric-amplification-and-the?publication_id=1002034&post_id=138749341
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@ZachWeinersmith Let's say we ask, if unemployment was much better under this administration than the last, or Covid deaths were much lower under this administration than the last, or the murder rate was much lower under this administration than the last.
Then we get into questions of min, max, median or mean of the periods, and how to define the periods.
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@ZachWeinersmith The poll shows the failure of the media to convey trends and understanding. How does a tariff work? Are murder rates, inflation rates, and illegal immigration rising or falling?
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@ZachWeinersmith IDK, people still think urban crime is still exactly at 1960s-1980s levels, which hasn't been true in over 30 years.
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@ZachWeinersmith That hypothesis is easy enough to test.
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@ZachWeinersmith I'm reminded of this article from 538 a couple years ago. 2020 there is a partisan flip, however in 2016, only one party had an immediate flip when the administration changed. I think 2020 is difficult to assess given there was a pandemic and once things calmed down with that, people were feeling much more optimistic, but it could still very well be that these questions are becoming reactionary for both parties as you suggest. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-pessimistic-views-on-the-economy-have-little-to-do-with-the-economy
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@ZachWeinersmith I mean, no? It's not like democrats are now going to be the ones to be more likely to believe that global warming or school shootings are a hoax. You don't suddenly become the ignorant idiot party when you're out of power.
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@ZachWeinersmith You mean Democrats will develop delusional views on the criminality of Trump and his entourage/backers/handlers?
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@ZachWeinersmith when nigh all social media is owned by sociopaths, people will remain not only ignorant but misinformed.
It's Italy under Mussolini, Spain under Franco, Germany under Hitler all over again.
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@ZachWeinersmith i.e.
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