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Written by zeynep tufekci on 2024-11-05 at 15:59

For US elections:

1- Errors are correlated across states

2- Most states are winner takes all

3- Polls aren’t random enough

4- Too few presidential elections for more robust modeling

4- One in ten events obviously happen

Yeah, Trump almost won 2020.

https://bird.makeup/@redistrict/1853683218362273920

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