It’s now flu season with bird flu raging among US dairy cattle — ~third of CA herds infected.
The danger is flu viruses have a trick: they can swap segments —one farmworker co-infected by human and avian flu— to cause pandemics.
We may get lucky. I hope so. That’s all we have.
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I’m not predicting it will happen. Not every virus evolves to spread among humans despite having all the opportunities.
But I do wish we didn’t give it all the opportunities to try.
This wasn’t inevitable. Now RFK Jr. may head potential response.
🎁🔗⤵️
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/29/opinion/bird-flu-pandemic.html?unlocked_article_code=1.dk4.7M89.KZ_5TnVVWsuC&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
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“If it’s true millions would have died” the measure would be justified, he said in 2020.
It was true.
Just look at India shortly after Dr. Bhattacharya declared majority had natural immunity.
They didn’t.
Millions died in just a few months — among the highest death rate.
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Trump's pick to lead the NIH, Dr. Bhattacharya, has made valid points about the pandemic, but he was also very wrong on some key issues.
As head of NIH, he'd be the one that needs to do what he says were denied to his allies: constructively listen to critics and concede errors.
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Some of the most promising research on debilitating Long Covid was funded by a small patient group using the $5 million they got from @vitalikbuterin — in cryptocurrency!
That's why picked @patientled as my choice for this year's donation guide.
Great way to make a difference.
https://bird.makeup/@bhanlon15/1861416030016340121
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It’s public that I’ve been open the critical of the public health establishment, but it’s not fair to retroactively rewrite a false history of what happened — especially the early days
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/27/opinion/nih-director-trump-jay-bhattacharya.html
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If the year has been good to you financially, this is a great way to support some people who really could use better research and are doing their best to make it happen despite serious hardship and illness.
Its last big boost was a crypto donation. They put it to excellent use.
https://bird.makeup/@patientled/1861527096092180771
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@ahandvanish @ginaassaf @lisaamccorkell sent you all an email! Thanks
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Congress, not the executive controls budgets, and GAO, which targets waste and fraud, already exists and is highly-effective except that Congress — see above, controls the purse strings — doesn’t really go alon—
eh, why bother?
I meant GAOCOIN 🚀🚀🚀
https://bird.makeup/@keds_economist/1857103811204014328
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This isn’t being“eccentric”.
Solid studies show that HPV vaccines are wiping out cervical cancer in many countries. I lost a grad school classmate to that illness —an early, terrible death that is now preventable, unless RFK Jr has his way.
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Why the people who hope RFK Jr will bring some amount of needed reform to the nation’s health and food are wrong.
He may take a wrecking ball to the good parts, but doesn’t have the chops or the evidence to go after, say, unhealthy food.
Gift link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/16/opinion/rfk-jr-health-secretary-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.aU4.5m9I.oiGDf43s7TRl
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Confirming here that this is me at bluesky, where many have gone.
https://bsky.app/profile/zey.bsky.social
Tbh, I’m not posting a lot on social media these days, anywhere.
I will update this page soon with my work if you want to keep in touch, that will have the info.
https://zeynep.me
https://bird.makeup/@andyrowell/1857473505907839131
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A good moment to remember this tragedy — now potentially scaling up not just to the US, but globally as what we do here will reverberate in many places.
https://bird.makeup/@emzorbit/1851484025153593797
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And the link.
Intellectually, this really isn’t that complicated. This is happening all over the world, and happens regularly in history. Erdogan is two decades into ruling Turkey.
Anyway, trying to understand is harder than getting mad. Always.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/14/opinion/trump-voters-iowa-caucus.html
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I got dragged by the usual suspects last January for explaining Trump’s enduring appeal as a charismatic strongman.
Countering such dynamics IS hard, but understanding them isn’t. It’s an old story.
But there was such resistance to even understanding them. So here we are.
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For US elections:
1- Errors are correlated across states
2- Most states are winner takes all
3- Polls aren’t random enough
4- Too few presidential elections for more robust modeling
4- One in ten events obviously happen
Yeah, Trump almost won 2020.
https://bird.makeup/@redistrict/1853683218362273920
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“The car stopped last time” doesn’t inform us what will happen AFTER the driver has purposefully dismantled the system that, despite his wishes, engaged brakes and countered veering. (Not even talking about Jan 6 etc. here).
Next time, he will drive as he truly wants to.
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So obvious why the first Trump term doesn’t indicate how the second one would go.
His VP and half his cabinet can’t bring themselves to endorse him. “Both his former chief-of-staff and former head of the joint chiefs call him a fascist.”
None of these restraints will be around.
https://bird.makeup/@theeconomist/1853424650409197739
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Key evidence to update one’s priors is his former top staffs’ very public positions, made at considerable personal risk to themselves, and their obvious absence as a restraining factor in a potential 2nd term, plus who is left around him, and what he actually says.
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It’s like clockwork. Many want to claim it’s Covid OR the vaccine.
Professional athletes have gotten pneumonia long before the pandemic or its vaccines…
We use appropriate statistics to discern patterns.
Meh. Who am I kidding on this app? Back to regularly scheduled claims!
https://bird.makeup/@oursf49ers/1848494911173103779
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