1/ When it comes to #SocietalCollapse, the focus is often on what factors might lead to it. But it is also relevant to look at how long things might take to recover. I tried to come up with an estimate by looking at each step of #SocietalDevelopment. I break this down roughly into:
You can find more details in this thread and at: https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/how-long-until-recovery-after-collapse
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2/ To come up with the estimate, I looked at scientific sources that describe how long societies usually need for these steps. Taken together, my estimate is 5000 years if every step happened under optimal conditions. They probably won't be optimal, but at least this gives us a rough estimate of #recovery times.
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3/ Special thanks to the great work of Daniel Hoyer and his collaborators on the Seshat database (https://seshat-db.com/), without which this post would not be possible!
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@florianjehn
Doesn't that ignore all possible collapse surviving knowledge and technology/artefacts?
There are millions of books published each year, of which even a lot of the fictional ones contain at least some amount of knowledge. There are millions of farmers, technicians, engineers, scientists all around the globe - what needed to take place to erase all of this knowledge are disasters on a cosmic scale, e.g. giant asteroid or a nearby super nova which are super unlikely. I'd bet that civilzationary recovery will be a lot faster than 5000 years, because we are billions who carry at least some knowledge, hundreds of millions with a lot of knowledge and billions of books and other media with conserved knowledge are everywhere. Even war, the climate catastrophe and similar things aren't enough to erase nearly all of that in my opinion.
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@florianjehn
...but thinking about that brought me to an interesting thought: how about starting a group of people who deliberately curate small "Doomsday-Libraries" at home which contain chosen important knowledge...and if that idea would spread and enough people around the world would participate...🤔
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@MurmeltHier This is a good idea. Some things that go in this direction are for example this book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18114087-the-knowledge
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