During my research around #SocietalCollapse, one thing that comes up again and is economic #inequality. It seems that there is something about it that makes societies inherently less stable and less able to tackle challenges ahead. To explore this more, I wrote this blog post: https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/economic-inequality-and-societal
In it I explore historical case studies around economic inequality and its effects, the problems of inequality across different time horizons and how historically we managed to reduce economic inequality.
[#]collapse #economics
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In the last few days the news focused a lot on the fact that #2024 was the first year where we went above #1.5°C. This made me want to highlight a paper again where I was the main author in 2022. In this paper we looked at what temperatures the #IPCC reports focus at and we showed that over the last few assessment reports the focus went to lower and lower temperatures, with the last assessment report focusing most on 1.5°C of warming. This means we produce the most research for a temperature range that we already passed for the first time this year. As the warming won't suddenly stop tomorrow, this means we are aiming our research in the wrong direction. I hope for future assessment reports we will again focus more on the temperature range we actually are speeding towards.
You can find the whole paper here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF002876 (it's quite short, so you can read it quickly)
[#]ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #AssessmentReport
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This month's post is about the hypothetical. Counterfactuals help us understand the world we live in by highlighting what could have gone differently and why. They also allow us to explore potential futures. For example, by examining a past catastrophe, we can ask: "What would have made this worse?" This allows us to better prepare for future challenges. 🌍🔍📖 https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/counterfactual-catastrophes
[#]counterfactual #LivingLiteratureReview #future #foresight #forecasting #storylines #ClimatCchange
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What would happen to our society if a long-term #blackout occurred? There is a high chance that it would get quite bad very quickly. #Transportation and health services would likely cease to function within a few days, and many people would face food and #water insecurity almost immediately. If you're interested in more details, I have written a new post in my #LivingLiteratureReview about the consequences of #blackouts: https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/the-consequences-of-blackouts ⚡🚨📉
[#]health #collapse #foodsecurity
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2/ To come up with the estimate, I looked at scientific sources that describe how long societies usually need for these steps. Taken together, my estimate is 5000 years if every step happened under optimal conditions. They probably won't be optimal, but at least this gives us a rough estimate of #recovery times.
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1/ When it comes to #SocietalCollapse, the focus is often on what factors might lead to it. But it is also relevant to look at how long things might take to recover. I tried to come up with an estimate by looking at each step of #SocietalDevelopment. I break this down roughly into:
You can find more details in this thread and at: https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/how-long-until-recovery-after-collapse
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In my work on #SocietalCollapse, the #FoodSystem 🌾 frequently emerges as a key factor. A critical aspect is the size of food stocks, which helps to endure periods of scarcity. But how much #food is actually stored worldwide? Check out my latest post to find out more. 🌍
https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/how-much-food-is-there
[#]resilience, #LivingLiteratureReview #scarcity
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8/ This workflow allows you to have only the papers you’re currently reading on your tablet while ensuring all your annotations are easily extracted and organized in Zotero.
[#]Zotero #ResearchWorkflow #AcademicTools #PaperManagement #Attanger
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4/
Step 7: Once a paper is fully read and annotated, move it to the "finished" collection.
Step 8: Finally, use Attanger again on this collection to move the papers to a different subfolder that doesn’t sync with your tablet, keeping your active reading list uncluttered.
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3/
Step 4: Use Attanger to move these papers to a subfolder linked with Google Drive. This subfolder syncs with your tablet, so you can easily access and read your papers.
Step 5: After reading and annotating the papers on your tablet, they sync back to the Google Drive folder.
Step 6: In Zotero, use the "Add notes from annotations" feature to extract and organize your notes directly within your library.
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2/ Step 1: When you download a paper with Attanger installed, it automatically moves the file to your designated literature folder.
Step 2: In Zotero, create two key collections: "to_read" for papers you plan to read and "finished" for those you’ve completed.
Step 3: Add new papers that you intend to read to the "to_read" collection.
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1/ If you're like me and have been using #Zotfile to send papers from #Zotero to your tablet, you’ve probably noticed that it no longer works with the latest Zotero release due to a lack of updates. While none of the replacement tools work exactly the same, I’ve managed to recreate most of my workflow using #Attanger: https://github.com/MuiseDestiny/zotero-attanger (The GitHub page is in Chinese, but the plugin is also available in English). Here's a short explainer, in case this is helpful for others as well.
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