Silver linings

The following will be all too obvious to anybody reading this here and

now, but I'll establish some context first, so that this post makes

some sense as a standalone document in the future: the world is in the

grip of a pandemic. The novel coronavirus COVID19 has infected over a

quarter of a million people world wide, and killed over 10,000. It's

early days, and both of those numbers will get much higher. Most

major developed nations are seeing sustained supermarket shortages of

toilet paper, hand sanitiser and staple foods with long shelf lives.

Many nations are imposing extreme measures to try to slow the spread

of the disease - borders are closing, non-essential businesses are

being forcibly closed, public gatherings above certain threshold sizes

• in some parts of the world as low as 5 or 10 people - are being

imposed.

Most people's attention, understandably, is on staying healthy and

slowing the spread of disease. I'm not an expert, but I strongly

expect that, on a longer timeline, the medical aspect of this

pandemic is going to be less of a big deal than the socioeconomic

aspect of it. Obviously the travel, transport and tourism industries

will be hit hard and fast. Some airlines have already gone bankrupt,

others are begging for government assistance to avoid that. Many

people have already lost jobs. But these industries are probably just

the tip of the iceberg. It seems to me that a global recession is

more or less inevitable. The modern world is built, in a major way,

on deep supply chains and ideas like just-in-time logistics, and on

constant, maximum speed growth and consumption. A lot of systems that

rely on this are going to be demolished by the consequences of this

pandemic and they will take a long time to recover.

There's no doubt at all that this is a genuine tragedy. I feel kind

of guilty even trying to suggest that we should try to perhaps find

upsides to this. It seems trite, and like an easy thing to say as a

relatively young and healthy person whose job is secure. Reluctantly,

I proceed anyway...

A small plus is that this experience might make "prepping" a little

more normal. Even the simple practice of having 72 hours worth of

essential supplies ready and on hand all the time is extremely

sensible and reasonable, and is explicitly recommended by the civil

defence or equivalent authorities of even the richest, most stable

countries in the world - and yet, almost nobody does it, and people

who do do it are liable to keep quiet about it for fear of being

branded as weird or paranoid. This is ridiculous, but it's

understandable, because most people have never had the direct,

hands-on experience of needing this level of preparedness and neither

has any living member of their family. After COVID19, this will no

longer be true for most of the planet for decades to come. The fact

that apparently reliable, stable aspects of daily life can disappear

for unexpected reasons on short notice will actually be a concrete

fact in everybody's mind. Basic preparedness might start to be seen

as the common sense it is, instead of a delusional eccentricity.

But truth be told, I am hoping for a lot more than this.

In the coming months, many people would ordinarily start and end their

day with a long and stressful commute, maybe driving through terrible

traffic or maybe jammed into a train or bus, will not be having to put

up with this extra dose of stress. Some of them may gain an hour of

even more of extra time in the day, even if they are working from home

for their usual hours. Maybe they'll be able to use that extra time

to get a full(er) night's sleep, regularly, for the first time in

years. Many people will also be eating a lot less fast food or junk

food. If people are really forced to hole themselves up, and/or if

supermarket supply chains really break down, they'll be eating a lot

of simple, basic food like rice, pasta, beans and bread, and they'll

be cooking it themselves, at home, with their families. On the

weekends, people will have to entertain themselves at home, with

things they already have. In short, a lot of people are going to

undergo some fairly intensive involuntary downshifting[1].

I realise that this downshift will take place against a background of

people dying, getting sick, losing jobs, losing businesses. I'm under

no illusion that this will be a happy "back to basics" Kumbaya camp.

But I kind of hope that a lot of people will notice that in some small

but real ways their lives actually improve as so much of the "rat

race" slows down or fades away. Maybe when the time comes for us to

go back to normal, some of these people will question whether we

actually want some parts of the old normal to be part of the new

normal. Maybe people will realise that some of the "non-essential

businesses" which were forcibly closed during the pandemic actually

are, literally, not essential, and that if they cause human workers to

lead miserable lifes, or have substantial negative environmental

impacts (already - already! - we are seeing reports of positive

environmental impacts of people staying at home more), maybe we should

just leave them behind.

Reading sloum's recent entry[2] on his early experiences coping with

the pandemic make me think perhaps I am being ludicrously naive and

optimistic about this whole thing. Maybe most people will be super

relieved to go back to exactly what normal was three months ago. I

guess we'll see.

Best wishes to everyone in Gopherspace, and their loved ones, in

weathering what is yet to come.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downshifting_(lifestyle)

[2] gopher://circumlunar.space:70/0/~sloum/phlog/20200318-21.txt