Ancestors

Toot

Written by Hanno Rein on 2025-02-01 at 20:46

The asteroid 2024 YR4 has been in the news lately because it has a 1.3% chance of impacting Earth in 2032.

I wrote up a short example on how to integrate the orbit with REBOUND and ASSIST in this Jupyter notebook:

https://github.com/hannorein/assist/blob/2024YR4/jupyter_examples/2024%20YR4.ipynb

[#]2024YR4 #astronomy

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Descendants

Written by Giuseppe Michieli on 2025-02-01 at 20:47

@hannorein It seems that now the likelihood has risen to 1.7% https://mstdn.science/@GMIK69/113929895758966015

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Written by Dan 🔓:afloppy:​:donor:, powered by sarcasm on 2025-02-01 at 22:37

@GMIK69 @hannorein how do we increase the chances...

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Written by Rubén Fernández Sotelo on 2025-02-02 at 01:18

@sycophantic @GMIK69 @hannorein

Worshipping the one who sleeps under the sea.

Cthulhu always listens.

Join us.

Be free.

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Written by Paul Schultze-Motel on 2025-02-02 at 13:33

@hannorein Interesting, thanks. There is some useful background information on Wikipedia:

2024 YR4

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4

Torino scale

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale

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Written by Florian Marquardt on 2025-02-02 at 14:09

@hannorein Looking at the last plot in the notebook, it seems every encounter the asteroid comes closer. Does this continue?

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Written by Hanno Rein on 2025-02-02 at 14:23

@FMarquardtGroup It very much depends on the close encounter in 2032. This is called a keyhole. Any small perturbation before this encounter will lead to a very large perturbation afterwards. This makes it very hard to predict what comes next.

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Written by Florian Marquardt on 2025-02-02 at 14:26

@hannorein Interesting!

And the behaviour so far (coming closer every encounter): is that a known pattern or just accidental?

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Written by Hanno Rein on 2025-02-02 at 14:31

@FMarquardtGroup That is just accidental.

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