Ancestors

Written by Richard Ashwell on 2024-12-31 at 08:50

The best & most comprehensive article I have read yet about the impending #collapse due to #overshoot, and what we can, but why we won't, do anything about it.

Thank you Jack of all trades @jackofalltrades

Overshoot: Cognitive Obsolescence

And the Population Conundrum

https://medium.com/@alysion42/overshoot-cognitive-obsolescence-and-the-population-conundrum-1fd29de848ee

[#]Collapse2040 #climate #environment #population

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Written by Jonathan Schofield on 2024-12-31 at 09:09

@RichardAshwell @jackofalltrades

Very good (bad) read. Thanks both.

Given the focus, I’m intrigued that Rees does not touch at all on the findings of Swan et al https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/111597000415994656

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Written by Jack of all trades on 2024-12-31 at 12:01

@urlyman @RichardAshwell

I'm not familiar with her work. First question I'd ask is: how significant effects she lists (dropping sperm count, rising number of miscarriages, etc.) are on the overall fertility rate, compared with other factors that are usually associated with it (contraception access, women education, declining child mortality, cost of rising children)?

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Written by Jonathan Schofield on 2024-12-31 at 12:12

@jackofalltrades I’m not qualified to answer but recently heard Jeremy Grantham summarise it like this https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/113661565451194700

@RichardAshwell

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Written by Jack of all trades on 2024-12-31 at 13:52

@urlyman @RichardAshwell

Good thread. All things considered, the low fertility scenario is probably the most gentle of many possible collapse scenarios. It would be an outside force that could successfully challenge the prevailing growth-obsessed capitalist dogma. OTOH we have Children of Men and The Handmaid's Tale as cautionary tales.

Ultimately, it may turn out to be a self-correcting problem. The more civilization crumbles the less chemicals it will pump out.

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Written by Jonathan Schofield on 2024-12-31 at 14:49

@jackofalltrades we’re poor at modelling complexity, which is one of Rees’s key points. Nonetheless I’m intrigued that he doesn’t at least acknowledge the fertility predicament, especially as both he and Swan are aliumni of Nate Hagens’s podcast

@RichardAshwell

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Written by Jack of all trades on 2024-12-31 at 16:47

@urlyman @RichardAshwell

From what I gather it's not at all clear there actually is a fertility crisis (as if we're heading towards a Children of Men scenario). Check out https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Male_infertility_crisis and especially this linked source: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/9/17/17841518/low-sperm-count-semen-male-fertility

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Written by Kim Spence-Jones 🇬🇧😷 on 2024-12-31 at 17:09

@jackofalltrades @urlyman @RichardAshwell

Since the world really should be aiming to reduce the population down towards a sustainable 2 billion, any reduction in fertility should be celebrated!

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Written by eobet on 2024-12-31 at 19:29

@KimSJ @jackofalltrades @urlyman @RichardAshwell seems that with the world’s politicians being paralyzed by corporate lobbying, a quick way to force a population from 8 billion down to 2 billion is WW3, and one way there is to let fascism grow in large parts of the world… which it has... and the billionaires are building bunkers… anyway, happy new year.

https://www.gu.se/en/news/dictatorships-advancing-globally

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Toot

Written by Richard Ashwell on 2025-01-01 at 08:35

@eobet

Sounds a likely path to me. The growth of the far right as lifestyles become constrained against unreasonable expectations is very likely to start a world war. Remember wars are always about resources, one way or another, so as nature fights back and resourced become more and more depleted due to #overshoot wars become much more likely, and as the phenomenon will be global, so will the wars.

[#]Collapse #Collapse2040 #overshoot #climate #WorldWar3

@KimSJ @jackofalltrades @urlyman

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Descendants