The best & most comprehensive article I have read yet about the impending #collapse due to #overshoot, and what we can, but why we won't, do anything about it.
Thank you Jack of all trades @jackofalltrades
Overshoot: Cognitive Obsolescence
And the Population Conundrum
https://medium.com/@alysion42/overshoot-cognitive-obsolescence-and-the-population-conundrum-1fd29de848ee
[#]Collapse2040 #climate #environment #population
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@RichardAshwell @jackofalltrades
Very good (bad) read. Thanks both.
Given the focus, I’m intrigued that Rees does not touch at all on the findings of Swan et al https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/111597000415994656
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@urlyman @RichardAshwell
I'm not familiar with her work. First question I'd ask is: how significant effects she lists (dropping sperm count, rising number of miscarriages, etc.) are on the overall fertility rate, compared with other factors that are usually associated with it (contraception access, women education, declining child mortality, cost of rising children)?
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@jackofalltrades I’m not qualified to answer but recently heard Jeremy Grantham summarise it like this https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/113661565451194700
@RichardAshwell
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@urlyman @RichardAshwell
Good thread. All things considered, the low fertility scenario is probably the most gentle of many possible collapse scenarios. It would be an outside force that could successfully challenge the prevailing growth-obsessed capitalist dogma. OTOH we have Children of Men and The Handmaid's Tale as cautionary tales.
Ultimately, it may turn out to be a self-correcting problem. The more civilization crumbles the less chemicals it will pump out.
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@jackofalltrades we’re poor at modelling complexity, which is one of Rees’s key points. Nonetheless I’m intrigued that he doesn’t at least acknowledge the fertility predicament, especially as both he and Swan are aliumni of Nate Hagens’s podcast
@RichardAshwell
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@urlyman @RichardAshwell
From what I gather it's not at all clear there actually is a fertility crisis (as if we're heading towards a Children of Men scenario). Check out https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Male_infertility_crisis and especially this linked source: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/9/17/17841518/low-sperm-count-semen-male-fertility
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@jackofalltrades @urlyman @RichardAshwell
Since the world really should be aiming to reduce the population down towards a sustainable 2 billion, any reduction in fertility should be celebrated!
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@KimSJ from a 500 year distance, I guess. But it will be grim
@jackofalltrades @RichardAshwell
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@KimSJ @jackofalltrades @urlyman @RichardAshwell seems that with the world’s politicians being paralyzed by corporate lobbying, a quick way to force a population from 8 billion down to 2 billion is WW3, and one way there is to let fascism grow in large parts of the world… which it has... and the billionaires are building bunkers… anyway, happy new year.
https://www.gu.se/en/news/dictatorships-advancing-globally
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@eobet
Sounds a likely path to me. The growth of the far right as lifestyles become constrained against unreasonable expectations is very likely to start a world war. Remember wars are always about resources, one way or another, so as nature fights back and resourced become more and more depleted due to #overshoot wars become much more likely, and as the phenomenon will be global, so will the wars.
[#]Collapse #Collapse2040 #overshoot #climate #WorldWar3
@KimSJ @jackofalltrades @urlyman
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@jackofalltrades interesting.
My understanding is that sperm production has been massively over-engineered by evolution so, at a species level, a large drop can be absorbed with very little effect on fertility.
But…
@RichardAshwell
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@jackofalltrades … when the trajectory is consistent and continuous and seems to be strongly correlated with the rise in toxic petrochemicals, which are themselves accumulating in greater amounts over time, the concern is that in a relatively short space of time, species can be in a world of trouble with the toxins still in the environment.
Probably related is that insect populations are declining at roughly the same rate
@RichardAshwell
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@urlyman @RichardAshwell
That's the crucial question: how consistent and continuous that trajectory really is, and to what extent that correlation is causal.
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@jackofalltrades true. But as we know commerce’s go to mantra is innocent until proven guilty to a degree of certainty that goes like https://youtu.be/HSD1d-6P6qI?t=14
@RichardAshwell
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