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Written by St John on 2024-12-24 at 12:26

Sam Bankman Fried has written contemptuously of his fellow inmates' lack of understanding of statistics:

"One day, Harry came to me with a new betting strategy: he would bet $100. If he lost, he would bet $250, and then $600, etc., until he won, and eventually he would win, so he was almost certainly going to make money doing it. I didn't have the heart to tell him that there was in fact a name for this strategy: "the gambler's fallacy." [0]

[0] https://archive.is/lqjQU

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Descendants

Written by St John on 2024-12-24 at 12:29

Problem is, that's not the gambler's fallacy. The gambler's fallacy is that after a string of losses, the next game is more likely to be a win. This is false because each game has the same probability. Harry is not betting the next game is more likely to be a win, just that a win will eventually be inevitable. However, I don't have a statistics brain so I took it to a friend who does, and he confirmed Harry's plan is not the gambler's fallacy.

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