Ancestors

Written by Anders Puck Nielsen on 2024-11-06 at 07:18

How many European countries will have nuclear weapons in four years?

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Written by mbpaz on 2024-11-06 at 07:28

@anderspuck does Belarus count?

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Written by Anders Puck Nielsen on 2024-11-06 at 07:29

@mbpaz Only if they build their own.

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Written by mbpaz on 2024-11-06 at 07:33

@anderspuck fine, but one could argue Brit nukes are not that much british either

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Written by Anders Puck Nielsen on 2024-11-06 at 07:37

@mbpaz They are controlled by the British government. I see the weapons in Belarus as akin to NATO's nuclear sharing program, which doesn't mean that e.g. Belgium and Germany have nukes today.

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Toot

Written by mbpaz on 2024-11-06 at 07:43

@anderspuck

Under those rules, my (worthless) prediction is: no new nuclear countries in Europe in the next 4 years, we're too slow to get there. Probably some discussion on the subject.

Poland might defeat me, though, but I doubt it.

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Descendants

Written by Anders Puck Nielsen on 2024-11-06 at 07:44

@mbpaz Ukraine is a European country too…

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Written by mbpaz on 2024-11-06 at 07:50

@anderspuck Ukraine does have the knowledge, materials and technology. Probably not the money and the safe environment required for the development. Definitely not the position for any sane nuclear doctrine.

If they had nukes they would have every reason to use them immediately. No country in control of nuclear weapons has been in that position for the past 80 years.

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Written by Anders Puck Nielsen on 2024-11-06 at 07:52

@mbpaz Yes, it would be much better for NATO to provide those security guarantees. But that probably won't happen now.

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Written by Michael Westergaard on 2024-11-06 at 11:38

They have all the motivation in the world though. Without a NATO security guarantee, what are they going to do? Try and rebuild for the next attach from Russia in 5-10 years?

They have a lot of reason for not using them now: whoever throws the first nuke is going to be a persona-non-grata on the international scene for many years. They'd rather have NATO protection.

Depending on what Trump told Zelensky a few weeks back, I'd bet they are rushing to make nukes ready for January 20th.

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Written by mbpaz on 2024-11-06 at 18:09

@anderspuck https://kyivindependent.com/with-trump-back-in-white-house-can-ukraine-opt-for-nuclear-deterrence/

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Written by Anders Puck Nielsen on 2024-11-06 at 21:17

@mbpaz I can’t read the article, unfortunately.

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