There's been a lot of talk about how recent events mean that we'll see a serious WordPress fork soon.
To make it concrete, is there a > 50% chance we'll see a WordPress or WP plugin infra fork with significant market share (at least 3 out of the top 15 hosted WordPress providers are using the fork) within one year of today?
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@danluu bet fake money on this:
https://manifold.markets/cibyr/will-any-wordpress-or-wp-plugin-inf
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@danluu What are the recent events?
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@danluu events from after this poll made me inclined to switch my vote to yes. The continued clownery makes me think either they’ll successfully get Matt out of a leadership role, or there will be a fork.
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@danluu When you posted this, I put the odds at more like 10% and voted no, but events of the last few days (like the whole "not associated with wpengine" checkbox and related bannings) make me feel like that's a low-ball now. Maybe not 50% where things stand today, but the trend toward increasing unhingedness doesn't seem to be slowing
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@danluu forking WP is easy enough but without the plug-ins it's not really much point. Setting up new plugin infra is the hard part and probably requires some money for storage and transfer and then getting all plugins to migrate
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