Toots for jpweiland@bird.makeup account

Written by JWeiland on 2025-01-18 at 21:40

Ryan is absolutely right here. The next divergent variant could appear at any time. Right now the Pirola lineage holds the longevity title w/o saltation replacement:

WT ~10 months

Alpha ~6 months

Delta ~5 months

BA.1/2 ~7 months

BA.5 ~6 months

XBB ~11 months

Pirola ~13+ months

https://bird.makeup/@longdeserttrain/1880695814277992701

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-12-29 at 22:00

While Covid is having a lighter impact than previous winters, Norovirus "stomach flu" is currently raging, flu is very high, and walking pnemonia is having its twice a decade wave. There is a lot going around! @wastewaterscan trends

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-11-19 at 23:21

Holiday Season Forecast:

🔹️The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-11-15 at 22:28

Nov 15th update:

A REALLY good sign for winter, with infections dropping again this week. 3x⬇️ of 12 month avg, and 3x⬇️ of early Nov avg (2020-2023). Looking less likely to reach 1M infections/day in Dec.

🔸185,000 new infections/day

🔸1 in every 180 people currently infected

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-10-03 at 14:58

A huge X9 flare with an a seemingly huge CME with earth directed components!

🔹️Biggest flare in 7 years

🔹️Directly facing earth

Maybe a G4 watch for Saturday?? Let's see what the models show.

https://bird.makeup/@spaceweather/1841852678621601999

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-08-02 at 18:05

August 2nd update:

Estimated daily infections rise to 900,000 as KP.3.1.1 nears dominance with some speed.

🔸900,000 new infections/day

🔸1 in every 37 people currently infected

🔸59% higher than 12 month avg.

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-07-19 at 20:00

Notable infection hotspots:

The 3 most populated states: California, Texas, and Florida, along with one of the least populated states: Hawaii.

All four near yearly highs on %positive at emergency departments.

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-07-19 at 19:32

Ratio of people currently infected by region:

Midwest: 1 in 59 ⬆️

South: 1 in 34 ⬆️

Northest: 1 in 73 ⬆️

West: 1 in 25 ⬆️

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-07-19 at 19:29

July 19th update:

Another substantial increase this week (+26%). Wastewater signal now higher than last summer's peak, and over a month earlier.

🔸780,000 new infections/day

🔸1 in every 43 people currently infected

🔸45% higher than 12 month avg.

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-07-12 at 19:26

July 12th update:

Wow! after a week off of reporting, the CDC posted a large increase in wastewater levels, and retroactively increased earlier levels.

🔸620,000 new infections/day

🔸1 in every 54 people currently infected

🔸15% higher than 12 month avg.

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Written by JWeiland on 2024-03-19 at 21:06

Sweden is not experiencing a spike in wastewater. Looks like those erroneous data points were corrected.

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