Which European countries will decline the most in the 21st century?

Nobody knows for sure…

But we can predict, from current knowledge and data, at least stagnation for some countries. Economies and societies are like people, they change and evolve, and what may seem likely now may be different in 20 years, as in life.

Some examples of various countries/regions and different reasons why they might be in trouble economically (and usually socially too )

• In general, almost all EU countries, their demographic pyramids are bad (not that most of the planet is any different) economists and demographers may reassure that increasing life expectancy, technology and foreign migration will reverse this, but we are entering a century of ageing populations and regional shrinking and this is one of the biggest challenges that individual countries will have to deal with.

• Southern European countries - their economic model is running out of steam and they are very sensitive to economic cycles, some even showing rather stagnation in the longer term. They have not been able to transform much in last decades and their economic model is pretty fragile and they are also likely to be most damaged by climate change.

• France and the UK - both countries are showing economic and social stagnation and something very bad is happening there even in the political way, like even worse than in other European developed countries. Some of the data from Britain are pretty bad over the last 15 years.

• Balkans and post-Soviet area - if what is happening demographically in Central and Western Europe is demographic change on steroids here, many of those countries are basically screwed already and will never achieve any decent economic performance/standard of living due to high emigration and high mortality rates.

For example, the current Russian attack on Ukraine has worsened the already poor demographic and social situation in both countries. And if Ukraine is undoubtedly more affected in this way It is also very unpleasant for Russia as the aggressor and it is also a clear signal to the more educated and smarter Russians that that country will be a poor and dangerous part of the world for at least the next 20 years, which is also why many of them emigrated.

In addition, many of these countries showt lower social and institutional stability, even those with authoritarian regimes. Btw, some political analysts predict another war in the Balkans…. And I probably don't need to mention that climate change will be even worse for them. Because things that are rather unpleasant complications in rich parts of the world can be downright deadly in poorer ones.